Novembers in Lapland vs super El Niño
Every autumn the same game starts in Lapland: how much snow and how cold in Lapland when the training camps run in cross-country skiers before the competition season opens. This year has a new old card, namely the super El Niño.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA in the US assessed the Oceanic Niño Index at 1.8 °C already in summer 2026 and thus giving over a 90 per cent chance of a very strong event this winter.
For El Niño's effect on Finnish weather the Finnish Meteorological Institute assessed that it drowns in ordinary variation, and El Niño winters have if anything been slightly cool. Foreca has speculated about a mild south and a snowier north.
To stir the pot, my take on this post is narrower. I vibecoded an app to see every November since 1959 at Muonio Alamuonio station nearest to the ski tracks in Olos, the epicenter of skiing action in mid-November.
A super El Niño peaks at 2.0 °C or more which gives 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16. Muonio has data for two. November 1997 was colder than average with no thaw days and normal snow. November 2015 was four degrees milder with fourteen thaw days.
In summary: The effect of El Niño is not seen in Lapland winter with no extra worries to be held on snow depth and minus degrees.
To play with the data, try it yourself:
November mean daily maximum temperature at Muonio Alamuonio by El Niño group, super threshold 1.5 °C. Black dot: group mean with 95 % interval. Each small point is one November.
Maximum November snow depth at Muonio against the December to February Oceanic Niño Index. Snow depth is recorded from 1982, so only three of the six super winters appear.
Sources
- Ilmatieteen laitos, Rantanen M & Lehtonen I, "Ennusteissa super-El Niño – vuodesta 2027 on tulossa todennäköisesti ennätyslämmin", puheenvuoro 29.5.2026. https://www.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/puheenvuoro/6GqkeryimopOS7dGCgYhBY
- Ilmatieteen laitos, "El Niño-ilmiöstä ennustetaan voimakasta", ajankohtaista 2026. https://www.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ajankohtaista/93599191
- MTV Uutiset, "Näin Godzilla El Niño voi vaikuttaa Suomeen: ensi talvesta lauhanlainen" (Foreca, Joanna Rinne), 12.6.2026. https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/nain-godzilla-el-nino-voi-vaikuttaa-suomeen-ensi-talvesta-lauhanlainen/9352456
- Foreca, "Uusi El Niño näkyy horisontissa – edellisellä kerralla Suomessa liki –45 astetta". https://www.foreca.fi/meteorologilta/vhc1bcrw
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, September 2026. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
- Data: NOAA GHCN-Daily station FIE00146423 (Muonio Alamuonio), NOAA Oceanic Niño Index. Analysis and app: https://github.com/rikhardfi/el-nino-years